A winter storm watch is now in effect for seven counties in Central New York, just as millions prepare to hit the road for Thanksgiving — and the timing couldn’t be worse. The National Weather Service, operating out of its Buffalo office, issued the alert at 12:00 PM EST on Thursday, November 27, 2025, warning of heavy lake effect snow, whiteout conditions, and gusts up to 40 mph that could cripple travel through the holiday weekend. This isn’t just another snowstorm. It’s a perfect storm of timing, terrain, and temperature — and it’s hitting right when the American Automobile Association (AAA) expects over 54.6 million Americans to be on the move.
What’s Coming Down — And Where
Forecasters are calling for 5 to 7 inches of snow across Onondaga, Oneida, and Madison counties, with pockets near Lake Ontario — especially in Jefferson, Lewis, Herkimer, and Oswego counties — potentially seeing up to 10 inches. The snow won’t fall evenly. Lake effect bands are fickle. One neighborhood might get buried; the next, barely a dusting. But when those bands lock in? Visibility drops below a quarter-mile. Roads vanish. Drivers are told: Don’t go.
Wind is the silent killer here. Sustained 20–30 mph gusts, with peaks of 40 mph, will whip the snow into a horizontal blur. Whiteouts aren’t just dangerous — they’re disorienting. People have been stranded for hours on I-81 and I-90 during past events. This year, the National Weather Service explicitly warned that conditions could persist for multiple hours at a time, especially Friday, November 28, when daytime highs hover around 31–34°F. Wet snow clinging to trees and power lines? That’s a recipe for outages.
Why This Storm Is So Unpredictable
Lake effect snow doesn’t behave like regular snowstorms. It’s born when bitter Arctic air — already chilled to the bone over Canada — sweeps across the still-warm waters of Lake Ontario. The lake, even in late November, holds heat. That warmth fuels moisture, which then crashes into the cold air above, dumping snow in narrow, intense ribbons. One moment, the sky is clear. The next, you’re in a blizzard. That’s why the alert is a watch, not a warning — yet.
Forecasters at the National Weather Service Buffalo office say they’re watching for snowfall rates exceeding 2 inches per hour. If that happens, the watch will upgrade to a warning — meaning conditions are imminent or already occurring. As of Wednesday, November 26, at 1:04 PM EST, the watch remained active, with no sign of relief. And here’s the kicker: Central New York normally gets just 3.5 inches of snow all month. This storm could deliver triple that in under 48 hours.
Travel Nightmare on the Holiday Road
Thanksgiving is the busiest travel weekend of the year. AAA estimates 54.6 million Americans will drive 50 miles or more. For families heading to Syracuse, Utica, or even Binghamton to gather, this storm is a nightmare. The National Weather Service has urged residents to postpone non-essential travel. But how many families will ignore that advice?
“We’ve seen people drive through blizzards before because they’re late for dinner,” said a New York State Department of Transportation spokesperson. “This isn’t the time to gamble.”
Highways like U.S. Route 20 and I-81 are already being prepped. Plows are fueled. Salt trucks are staged. But when snow drifts hit six feet deep — as they did in Buffalo in 2022 — even the best equipment can’t keep up. And with temperatures barely above freezing, melting snow will refreeze overnight, turning roads into skating rinks.
What Residents Should Do — And Where to Get Updates
The National Weather Service is urging every household in the watch zone to prepare like they’re bracing for a power outage. That means:
- Keep a winter emergency kit in your car: blankets, bottled water, non-perishable snacks, a flashlight, sand or kitty litter for traction
- Charge phones and power banks — battery life drops fast in the cold
- Have a backup heat source if you rely on electric heat
- Check on elderly neighbors — isolation in a storm is deadly
For real-time updates, locals are being told to tune into NewsRadio 570 WSYR or NOAA Weather Radio. Digital platforms like Syracuse.com and CNY Central are also providing live radar maps and road condition reports. Flack Broadcasting stations across the region are airing hourly bulletins. Don’t wait for a text alert. The snow doesn’t care about your schedule.
What Comes Next
The storm is expected to ease by Saturday, November 29, at midnight. But the cleanup? That’s just beginning. Snow removal crews will be working nonstop. Power restoration could take days in rural areas. And if temperatures dip below freezing Saturday night — as forecasted — ice will form on roads even after the snow stops.
Historically, Central New York has seen brutal lake effect events. The November 2022 storm near Buffalo dropped over 6 feet of snow. This one won’t reach that scale. But it doesn’t have to. A few inches of snow, combined with high winds and holiday traffic, can be just as devastating.
What’s happening here is a reminder: weather doesn’t pause for holidays. And in the Great Lakes region, nature doesn’t ask permission.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does this affect Thanksgiving travel plans in Central New York?
The winter storm watch directly threatens travel along major corridors like I-81, I-90, and U.S. Route 20, where millions are expected to drive. With whiteout conditions possible and visibility dropping below 1/4 mile, delays, accidents, and closures are likely. The National Weather Service strongly advises postponing non-essential travel, especially Friday, November 28, when snowfall peaks and road surfaces become icy.
Why is lake effect snow so hard to predict?
Lake effect snow forms in narrow, fast-moving bands triggered by cold air passing over warmer lake water. These bands can shift location by just a few miles, meaning one town gets 10 inches while the next gets none. Forecasters know the general area will see heavy snow, but exact timing and intensity remain uncertain — which is why a watch, not a warning, is currently in effect.
What’s the difference between a winter storm watch and a warning?
A watch means conditions are possible within the next 12–48 hours and residents should prepare. A warning means hazardous conditions are expected or already occurring. The current alert for Central New York is a watch because snowfall rates haven’t yet reached 2 inches per hour — the threshold for upgrading to a warning. If that happens, emergency declarations could follow.
How does this compare to past snow events in the region?
While not as extreme as the November 2022 Buffalo storm that dumped over 6 feet of snow, this event is unusual for its timing. Central New York averages just 3.5 inches of snow in all of November. This storm could deliver triple that in under two days. Combined with high winds and holiday traffic, the disruption could rival larger storms in terms of real-world impact.
Should I cancel my Thanksgiving trip?
If your route passes through Onondaga, Jefferson, Oswego, or any of the affected counties, strongly consider delaying travel until Saturday evening or Sunday. The worst conditions — heavy snow, whiteouts, and icy roads — are expected Friday. Even if you’re experienced in winter driving, the combination of fatigue, unfamiliar routes, and sudden visibility loss makes this exceptionally risky.
What should I include in a winter emergency kit for my car?
At minimum: two warm blankets, bottled water, high-calorie snacks (like granola bars), a flashlight with extra batteries, a phone charger, a small shovel, sand or kitty litter for traction, a scraper and brush, and a basic first-aid kit. If you have a full-size spare tire, make sure it’s properly inflated. Many people forget that cold drains batteries — keep your phone charged and consider a portable power bank.
